Abstract

Mounting urban traffic congestion is currently one of the crippling problems facing Metro Manila and most major cities of the Asia-Pacific Region. This is caused by the inability of transportation infrastructure to meet the increasing travel demands of economic and social activities of the population in rapidly and chaotically expanding metropolitan areas. Because of Manila's scarce and limited resources, transport agencies and policy-makers are under constant pressure to provide innovative programs to extract maximum efficiency from an already overstretched transportation system. However, no satisfactory long-term solution can be formulated until sufficient understanding of the problem is achieved.

This paper presents the initial results of research on understanding Manila's congestion problem by focusing on the generation of travel demand. The paper reports on an analysis of the trip-generation characteristics of the population of Metro Manila based on the Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integrated Studies database collected by the National Center for Transportation Studies. The analysis employs structural equation modelling (SEM) and proceeds to develop a demographic and activitybased model of the spatial and temporal distribution of the travel demands of the 1996 population. This paper reports on the initial applications of SEM to develop measurement models for travel behaviour. Succeeding publications will report on the derivation of the full structural equation models and the validation of the results.

INTRODUCTION

Urban transport congestion, with its related impacts, is one of the most pressing problems in the Philippines (Cal 1999). The key area for concern is Metro Manila, now a massive, gridlocked urban area that accommodated 10.2 million people in 1997, produces over one-third of the Philippines' GDP, and contains 17 municipalities, of which four are cities. By 2015 Manila is expected to become a metropolis of 13 million people.